They come up with the results that the outcome of the UK's referendum on EU probability data in percentage points (Brexit_Prob) based on decimal odds of. Currently, the odds are against a UK departure from the EU, at least for British bookies. Yet whatever the result of the vote, the Brexit referendum has. Bookmakers dramatically reversed the odds on Britain leaving the European Union on Friday as early results from a historic referendum pointed to strong.
Probability of a Remain vote in Britain's EU referendum soars to 78 percent - Betfair oddsCurrently, the odds are against a UK departure from the EU, at least for British bookies. Yet whatever the result of the vote, the Brexit referendum has. Wahlverhalten ihrer Leser am Beispiel des EU-Referendums Von der welchen Mitteln britische Printmedien im Vorfeld des Referendums EU-Themen bzw. die nonsense, is the odds-on favourites to be our next prime minister. After winning the referendum on Scottish independence with a safe margin—against all expectations—he felt confident about winning an EU referendum with.
Eu Referendum Odds Main Content VideoBBC's EU Referendum 'Great Debate', full version (21Jun16)
Today is the day of Britain's EU referendum and since the polls opened, the odds on "Brexit" have skyrocketed and the economy has started reacting as though the UK will stay in the EU.
None of the counting will begin until 10pm tonight and as far as i know there are no exit polls. Does anyone know how people can be gauging the results so confidently before counting even begins?
During the UK general election the polls predicted a hung parliament. It turned out to be a majority win for the conservative party. Have a look at this article : New research suggests why general election polls were so inaccurate - Guardian.
The thing they got so wrong was a 'randomness' of the samples they selected. So, after this was scaled up to the whole population the results were skewed.
I feel that opinion polls can also be used to give the false impression that one side or the other is winning thus boosting their campaign.
How the pollsters got it wrong on the EU referendum. Of polls carried out since the EU referendum wording was decided last September, fewer than a third 55 in all predicted a leave vote.
The actual result on the night came in at Just 16 of individual polls predicted a split in favour of leave. Polls did give a sense of the swing to leave in the first weeks of June, but edged back to favour remain in the final days before the vote.
Just two of six polls released the day before the referendum — those carried out TNS and Opinium — gave leave the edge. Nicolas J. Firzli has argued that the Brexit debate should be viewed within the broader context of economic analysis of EU law and regulation in relation to English common law , arguing: "Every year, the British Parliament is forced to pass tens of new statutes reflecting the latest EU directives coming from Brussels — a highly undemocratic process known as ' transposition ' Slowly but surely, these new laws dictated by EU commissars are conquering English common law, imposing upon UK businesses and citizens an ever-growing collection of fastidious regulations in every field".
Thiemo Fetzer, professor of Economics from University of Warwick , analyzed the welfare reforms in the UK since and suggests that numerous austerity-induced welfare reforms from onwards have stopped contributing to mitigate income differences through transfer payments.
This could be a key activating factor of anti-EU preferences that lie behind the development of economic grievances and the lack of support in a Remain victory.
Michael Jacobs, the current director of the Commission on Economic Justice at the Institute for Public Policy Research and Mariana Mazzucato, a professor in University College London in Economics of Innovation and Public Value have found that the Brexit campaign had the tendency to blame external forces for domestic economic problems and have argued that the problems within the economy wasn't due to 'unstoppable forces of globalisation' but rather the result of active political and business decisions.
Instead, they claim that orthodox economic theory has guided poor economic policy such as investment and that has been the cause of problems within the British economy.
The head of the IFS, Paul Johnson, said that the UK "could perfectly reasonably decide that we are willing to pay a bit of a price for leaving the EU and regaining some sovereignty and control over immigration and so on.
That there would be some price though, I think is now almost beyond doubt. During a Treasury Committee shortly following the vote, economic experts generally agreed that the leave vote would be detrimental to the UK economy.
Michael Dougan , Professor of European Law and Jean Monnet Chair in EU Law at the University of Liverpool and a constitutional lawyer, described the Leave campaign as "one of the most dishonest political campaigns this country [the UK] has ever seen", for using arguments based on constitutional law that he said were readily demonstrable as false.
In particular, eight out of 10 respondents felt that leaving the EU would have a negative impact on trusts' ability to recruit health and social care staff.
Guidelines by the Charity Commission for England and Wales that forbid political activity for registered charities have limited UK health organizations' commentary on EU poll, according to anonymous sources consulted by the Lancet.
In May , more than historians wrote in a joint letter to The Guardian that Britain could play a bigger role in the world as part of the EU.
They said: "As historians of Britain and of Europe, we believe that Britain has had in the past, and will have in the future, an irreplaceable role to play in Europe.
Following David Cameron's announcement of an EU referendum, British think tank the Institute of Economic Affairs IEA announced in July a competition to find the best plan for a UK exit from the European Union, declaring that a departure is a "real possibility" after the general election.
Analysis of polling suggested that young voters tended to support remaining in the EU, whereas those older tend to support leaving, but there was no gender split in attitudes.
It was later criticised for overestimating the margin of the "Remain" vote,  when it became clear a few hours later that the UK had voted The number of jobs lost or gained by a withdrawal was a dominant issue; the BBC's outline of issues warned that a precise figure was difficult to find.
The Leave campaign argued that a reduction in red tape associated with EU regulations would create more jobs and that small to medium-sized companies who trade domestically would be the biggest beneficiaries.
Those arguing to remain in the EU, claimed that millions of jobs would be lost. The EU's importance as a trading partner and the outcome of its trade status if it left was a disputed issue.
Whereas those wanting to stay cited that most of the UK's trade was made with the EU, those arguing to leave say that its trade was not as important as it used to be.
Scenarios of the economic outlook for the country if it left the EU were generally negative. The United Kingdom also paid more into the EU budget than it received.
Citizens of EU countries, including the United Kingdom, have the right to travel, live and work within other EU countries, as free movement is one of the four founding principles of the EU.
After the announcement had been made as to the outcome of the referendum, Rowena Mason, political correspondent for The Guardian offered the following assessment: "Polling suggests discontent with the scale of migration to the UK has been the biggest factor pushing Britons to vote out, with the contest turning into a referendum on whether people are happy to accept free movement in return for free trade.
The EU had offered David Cameron a so-called "emergency brake" which would have allowed the UK to withhold social benefits to new immigrants for the first four years after they arrived; this brake could have been applied for a period of seven years.
The possibility that the UK's smaller constituent countries could vote to remain within the EU but find themselves withdrawn from the EU led to discussion about the risk to the unity of the United Kingdom.
The UK cannot possibly continue in its present form if England votes to leave and everyone else votes to stay". The scheduled debates and question sessions included a number of question and answer sessions with various campaigners.
The voting areas were grouped into twelve regional counts and there was separate declarations for each of the regional counts.
In England, as happened in the AV referendum , the districts were used as the local voting areas and the returns of these then fed into nine English regional counts.
In Scotland the local voting areas were the 32 local councils which then fed their results into the Scottish national count, and in Wales the 22 local councils were their local voting areas before the results were then fed into the Welsh national count.
Northern Ireland, as was the case in the AV referendum, was a single voting and national count area although local totals by Westminster parliamentary constituency areas were announced.
Gibraltar was a single voting area, but as Gibraltar was to be treated and included as if it were a part of South West England, its results was included together with the South West England regional count.
The following table shows the breakdown of the voting areas and regional counts that were used for the referendum. On 16 June , a pro-EU Labour MP, Jo Cox , was shot and killed in Birstall , West Yorkshire the week before the referendum by a man calling himself "death to traitors, freedom for Britain", and a man who intervened was injured.
EU had continued to put out advertising the day after Jo Cox's murder. On polling day itself two polling stations in Kingston upon Thames were flooded by rain and had to be relocated.
Although this was widely dismissed as a conspiracy theory, some Leave campaigners advocated that voters should instead use pens to mark their ballot papers.
On polling day in Winchester an emergency call was made to police about "threatening behaviour" outside the polling station.
After questioning a woman who had been offering to lend her pen to voters, the police decided that no offence was being committed.
The electorate voted to "Leave the European Union", with a majority of 1,, votes 3. Voting figures from local referendum counts and ward-level data using local demographic information collected in the census suggests that Leave votes were strongly correlated with lower qualifications and higher age.
Researchers based at the University of Warwick found that areas with "deprivation in terms of education, income and employment were more likely to vote Leave".
The Leave vote tended to be greater in areas which had lower incomes and high unemployment, a strong tradition of manufacturing employment, and in which the population had fewer qualifications.
The main reason people voted Remain was that "the risks of voting to leave the EU looked too great when it came to things like the economy, jobs and prices".
One analysis suggests that in contrast to the general correlation between age and likelihood of having voted to leave the EU, those who experienced the majority of their formative period between the ages of 15 to 25 during the Second World War are more likely to oppose Brexit than the rest of the over age group, [ failed verification ] for they are more likely to associate the EU with bringing peace.
EU referendum vote by age and education, based on a YouGov survey. EU referendum leave vote versus educational attainment Highest level of qualification for Level 4 qualifications and above by area for England and Wales.
The referendum was criticised for not granting people younger than 18 years of age a vote. Unlike in the Scottish independence referendum , the vote was not extended to and year-old citizens.
Critics argued that these people would live with the consequences of the referendum for longer than those who were able to vote.
Some supporters for the inclusion of these young citizens considered this exclusion a violation of democratic principles and a major shortcoming of the referendum.
The foreign ministry of Ireland stated on 24 June that the number of applications from the UK for Irish passports had increased significantly.
There were more than a hundred reports of racist abuse and hate crime in the immediate aftermath of the referendum, with many citing the plan to leave the European Union.
In the UK, crimes are recorded as hate crimes based on the perception of the victim. No more Polish vermin".
The killing of a Polish national Arkadiusz Jozwik in Harlow, Essex in August  was widely, but falsely,  speculated to be linked to the Leave result.
The petition had actually been initiated by someone favouring an exit from the EU, one William Oliver Healey of the English Democrats on 24 May , when the Remain faction had been leading in the polls, and had received 22 signatures prior to the referendum result being declared.
Healey also claimed that the petition had been "hijacked by the remain campaign". On 27 June , David Cameron 's spokesperson stated that holding another vote on Britain's membership of the European Union was "not remotely on the cards".
There must be no attempts to remain inside the EU Brexit means Brexit. Its response said that the referendum vote "must be respected" and that the government "must now prepare for the process to exit the EU".
On 24 June, the Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister David Cameron announced that he would resign by October because the Leave campaign had been successful in the referendum.
The leadership election was scheduled for 9 September. The new leader would be in place before the autumn conference set to begin on 2 October. The Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn faced growing criticism from his party, which had supported remaining within the EU, for poor campaigning.
This led to a string of Labour MPs quickly resigning their roles in the party. The vote did not require the party to call a leadership election  but after Angela Eagle and Owen Smith launched leadership challenges to Corbyn, the Labour Party leadership election was triggered.
Corbyn won the contest, with a larger share of the vote than in On 4 July Nigel Farage stood down as the leader of UKIP, stating that his "political ambition has been achieved" following the result of the referendum.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said on 24 June that it was "clear that the people of Scotland see their future as part of the European Union" and that Scotland had "spoken decisively" with a "strong, unequivocal" vote to remain in the European Union.
In reaction to the lack of a unified pro-EU voice following the referendum, the Liberal Democrats and others discussed the launch of a new centre-left political movement.
On the morning of 24 June, the pound sterling fell to its lowest level against the US dollar since The referendum result also had an immediate impact on some other countries.
On 28 June , former governor of Bank of England Mervyn King said that current governor Mark Carney would help to guide Britain through the next few months, adding that the BOE would undoubtedly lower the temperature of the post-referendum uncertainty, and that British citizens should keep calm, wait and see.
On 5 January , Andy Haldane , chief economist and the executive director of monetary analysis and statistics at the Bank of England , admitted that the bank's forecasts predicting an economic downturn should the referendum favour Brexit had proved inaccurate given the subsequent strong market performance.
In August , the Electoral Reform Society published a highly critical report on the referendum and called for a review of how future events are run.
Contrasting it very unfavourably with the 'well-informed grassroots' campaign for Scottish independence , Katie Ghose described it as "dire" with "glaring democratic deficiencies" which left voters bewildered.
Looking ahead, the society called for an official organisation to highlight misleading claims and for Office of Communications Ofcom to define the role that broadcasters were expected to play.
David Dimbleby announced it with the words:. Well, at twenty minutes to five, we can now say the decision taken in by this country to join the Common Market has been reversed by this referendum to leave the EU.
We are absolutely clear now that there is no way that the Remain side can win. It looks as if the gap is going to be something like 52 to 48, so a four-point lead for leaving the EU, and that is the result of this referendum, which has been preceded by weeks and months of argument and dispute and all the rest of it.
The British people have spoken and the answer is: we're out! The remark about was technically incorrect: the UK had joined the Common Market in and the referendum was on whether to remain in it.
On 9 May , Leave. In February , the Electoral Commission announced that it was investigating the spending of Stronger in and Vote Leave, along with smaller parties, as they had not submitted all the necessary invoices, receipts, or details to back up their accounts.
On 4 March , the Information Commissioner's Office also reported that it was 'conducting a wide assessment of the data-protection risks arising from the use of data analytics , including for political purposes' in relation to the Brexit campaign.
It was specified that among the organisations to be investigated was Cambridge Analytica and its relationship with the Leave.
EU campaign. In November , the Electoral Commission said that it was investigating allegations that Arron Banks , an insurance businessman and the largest single financial supporter of Brexit, violated campaign spending laws.
In December , the Electoral Commission announced several fines related to breaches of campaign finance rules during the referendum campaign.
In May , the Electoral Commission fined Leave. The Electoral Commission's director of political finance and regulation and legal counsel said that the "level of fine we have imposed has been constrained by the cap on the commission's fines".
On 14 September , following a High Court of Justice case, the court found that Vote Leave had received incorrect advice from the UK Electoral Commission , but confirmed that the overspending had been illegal.
Vote Leave subsequently said they would not have paid it without the advice. In February , the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee's month investigation into disinformation and fake news published its final report,  calling for and inquiry to establish, in relation to the referendum, "what actually happened with regard to foreign influence, disinformation, funding, voter manipulation, and the sharing of data, so that appropriate changes to the law can be made and lessons can be learnt for future elections and referenda".
In the run-up to the Brexit referendum, Russian President Vladimir Putin refrained from taking a public position on Brexit,  but Prime Minister David Cameron suggested that Russia "might be happy" with a positive Brexit vote, while the Remain campaign accused the Kremlin of secretly backing a "Leave" vote in the referendum.
Not only in the UK but all over the world. But Russia has nothing to do with Brexit at all. We're not involved in this process.
The article identified 13, Twitter accounts that posted a total of about 65, messages in the last four weeks of the Brexit referendum campaign, the vast majority campaigning for a "Leave" vote; they were deleted shortly after the referendum.
In November , the Electoral Commission told The Times that it had launched an inquiry to "examine the growing role of social media in election campaigns amid concerns from the intelligence and security agencies that Russia is trying to destabilise the democratic process in Britain".
According to Facebook , Russian-based operatives spent 97 cents to place three adverts on the social network in the run-up to the referendum, which were viewed times.
EU funder Arron Banks had met Russian officials "multiple times" from to and had discussed "a multibillion dollar opportunity to buy Russian goldmines".
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Redirected from United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, National vote to advise Parliament on whether the UK should remain a member of, or leave, the European Union.
Remain campaigns. Notice of withdrawal. Negotiation positions EU negotiation mandate Chequers agreement Timeline: , , Withdrawal agreement. Parliamentary votes.
Future EU—UK relations. Opposition in the UK. Referendum Act results. Treaty amendments. MEPs for UK constituencies.
Members — elected by parliament Members — election Members — election Members — election Members — election Members — election Members — election Members — election Members — election Members — election Women.
Officials and bodies. Issues and events. List per year. European Union. Member States Candidate countries. Treaties of Accession. Treaties of Succession.
Abandoned treaties and agreements. European Council. European Commission. Legislative procedure Council of the EU Presidency. European Parliament Members.
National parliaments. Court of Justice of the EU. European Court of Auditors. Eurozone Members. European Central Bank.
Schengen Area. Non-Schengen Area states. European Economic Area. EEA Members. Other Bodies. Policies and Issues. Other currencies in use.
Foreign Relations. High Representative. Foreign relations of EU Member States. Other countries. See also: European Union Referendum Act See also: Causes of the vote in favour of Brexit.
For the positions of backbench MPs and other politicians, see Endorsements in the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum.
Further information: Causes of the vote in favour of Brexit. Further information: International reactions to the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum.
Further information: Conservative Party leadership election. Further information: Labour Party leadership election UK. Main article: Proposed second Scottish independence referendum.
Main article: Economic effects of Brexit. Main article: Unlawful campaigning in the EU referendum. Main article: Russian interference in the Brexit referendum.
Later, a private prosecution was launched against Boris Johnson for misconduct in public office ; the case was thrown out. Retrieved 24 December World Bank.
Retrieved 23 December BBC News. In the weeks since, the remain side would have extended its lead by 51, votes, and will add another 42, by March 29, the date in which the UK is theoretically scheduled to leave the EU.
Here's how Kellner worked it all out, as he laid out in The Independent at the time. Of the , Brits who die annually, Kellner postulated an 80 per cent turnout, with two thirds voting to leave, which breaks down to , voting to depart the EU and , wanting to stay.
Meanwhile, , youngsters come of age each year. In the younger cohort, 65 per cent voted in the referendum, with 87 per cent voting to remain, suggesting each year sees Britain gain , remain voters and 60, leave voters purely by teenagers turning Slam those figures together and it means, by Kellner's count , that the gap between the sides in the EU referendum shrunk by 1, a day until January, which he dubbed "Crossover Day".
He's confident those figures hold true. That holds true for those too young to vote that summer, says YouGov research manager Chris Curtis.
He adds: "Increasingly, age is becoming the biggest dividing line in British politics," he says. Age is a major indicator on political party affiliation and opinions on migration, he adds.
While age clearly matters, there are plenty of assumptions underpinning these calculations. To start, no official breakdown of vote demographics was released for the EU referendum held in June , though exit polls suggest age mattered.
For any other Betfair-related queries, contact the helpdesk. OK, I get it. Exchange Simulator. Premier League Tips.
Champions League Tips. Horse Racing Tips. Cricket Tips. Will Britain remain within the EU? Join today. More UK Politics. Join today Log in. More Podcasts UK.